Asia Cup 2025: Who Needs What To Qualify For Super 4s?
Karan Pradhan tracks India’s smooth sailing, Pakistan’s revival, and the Super 4 scramble for Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh.
Last Updated: 05.50 PM, Sep 16, 2025
EIGHT MATCHES in the T20 Asia Cup have been completed. A bunch of runs have been scored, a hatful of wickets have fallen, a handful of catches have been taken and hands have been shaken (except those that haven’t) and we’re mercifully almost at the business end of the tournament. Of all the matches so far, only Monday night’s Hong Kong-Sri Lanka encounter threatened to go either way for a while. The rest have been largely drab, predictable and one-sided affairs.
At this point, most teams have played two matches apiece (Hong Kong have played their full complement of three, while Afghanistan have played the solitary match) and the Super 4 picture is beginning to get a bit clearer.
GROUP A
India: With two wins from two games and only a match against bottom-of-the-table Oman to go, Suryakumar Yadav and Co were the first to qualify for the next stage of the Asia Cup. The comprehensive nature of the victories means that India can afford to experiment with their XI in the final group stage match. Opportunities for Arshdeep Singh, Harshit Rana, Rinku Singh and Jitesh Sharma may be on the cards, with India appearing to be the only team that have truly hit their stride in the tournament so far.
Pakistan: A thumping win over Oman will not overshadow a fairly abject performance against India — post-match shenanigans notwithstanding. Salman Agha will be acutely aware that this sort of performance will not suffice, if Pakistan are to live up to their billing and go all the way in this tournament. A final group stage match against the UAE is just the sort of game that could bring the Pakistanis, particularly their top order, into some form. That said and given their superior NRR, a win or a tie will see them through to the next round.
UAE: A dismal 57 all out against India last week was followed by a formidable 172/5 in Monday night’s West Asian Derby against Oman. The 42-run win over their neighbours means that the UAE are still in the competition. Emboldened by openers Alishan Sharafu and Muhammad Waseem’s form, the hosts may still fancy their chances of qualifying for the next round. But to do that, they’ll have to pull off a monumental upset and defeat Pakistan. Stranger (although admittedly not very much stranger) things have happened in cricket, but the odds are not in the UAE’s favour.
Oman: A 93-run shellacking at the hands of Pakistan is never an ideal way to start a tournament. But to their credit, Oman put on an improved show against the UAE with the middle and lower-middle order chipping in with some useful runs in the chase. Unfortunately, the two defeats mean that Oman’s match against India will be their final appearance in this edition of the Asia Cup. Facing an Indian team in this format is never the easiest task, and it’s been made all the harder by the rampant form in which the subcontinental side finds itself. Scoring at least 100 runs and picking up four or five Indian wickets will be credible returns from this dead rubber.
GROUP B
Sri Lanka: A convincing win over Bangladesh and a tougher-than-expected victory over Hong Kong have virtually confirmed Sri Lanka’s march to the Super 4s. A berth in the second stage of the Asia Cup would’ve been the most basic target for the Charith Asalanka-led team, and they’re on the brink despite barely getting out of third gear and nearly throwing it all away against the plucky Hong Kongers. Tournament progress is entirely in Sri Lanka’s hands because a win over Afghanistan would seal their place atop the Group B table. However, their spot in the next round could be confirmed much earlier if Afghanistan defeat Bangladesh on Tuesday night.
Afghanistan: Through a curious scheduling quirk, Rashid Khan’s side have only played one match in the Asia Cup thus far — the opening match of the event a whole week ago. The tournament opener saw Afghanistan make short work of Hong Kong, with starring performances by Sediqullah Atal and Azmatullah Omarzai. Their first real challenge will inarguably come against Bangladesh on Tuesday night. A win will ensure safe passage to the Super 4s for themselves (alongside Sri Lanka), regardless of the result of their final group match against the Islanders. A loss will mean that it’s still mathematically possible for any two of Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and Bangladesh to make it through.
Bangladesh: Of the three teams still in contention to represent Group B in the Super 4s, Litton Das and Co have the steepest mountain to climb. The loss to Sri Lanka on September 13 cost Bangladesh more than just two points — it also took chunks out of their NRR that presently stands at -0.650 (compared to Afghanistan’s 4.7 and Sri Lanka’s 1.546). This means that Bangladesh will need to defeat Afghanistan by a large enough margin to overhaul Sri Lanka’s NRR in order to maximise their chances of progress. Of course, the NRR will be inconsequential if Afghanistan lose both their coming matches, but it will definitely come into play if Afghanistan lose to Bangladesh, but beat Sri Lanka. If, however, Afghanistan are to beat Bangladesh on Tuesday night, the Tigers will be on their flight back to Dhaka.
Hong Kong: A resilient display and a fight to the very end was a creditable way for the tournament’s most inexperienced participants to end the tournament. An Asia Cup that began with a rout at Afghanistan’s hands, would then see Hong Kong give Bangladesh a bit of a challenge and very nearly pull off a major upset over Sri Lanka. As it stands, Yasim Murtaza and Co’s time in the tournament has come to an end, and the biggest lesson they’ll take away with them is that maybe the gulf between them and the big boys of Asian cricket isn’t as wide as it once was.
Prediction time
India and Pakistan’s progress from Group A seems like a foregone conclusion, however, it’s a bit trickier to call Group B. The most likely outcome is Sri Lanka and Afghanistan completing the Super 4, however, you can really never predict what Bangladesh will do. Exciting times!
Karan Pradhan is editor-in-chief of Story Mode, a gaming and gaming-adjacent magazine. Follow him on X/Twitter @karanpradhan_