ODI World Cup 2023: Has New Zealand's loss opened doors for Pakistan's semi-final qualification? Scenarios for each team

As the ICC Men's ODI World Cup 2023 group stage is almost nearing its conclusion, with each team having played six to seven matches, the focus intensifies on the top four teams vying for a spot in the semi-finals. India is setting the pace with six consecutive victories, and with Bangladesh no longer in contention, the race remains wide open.

Currently, South Africa, New Zealand, and Australia have joined hosts India in the top four positions. However, with 14 group-stage matches left to be played, nearly every team barring Bangladesh remains in contention.

Let's take a closer look at the current standings in the semi-final race, presented in order of their positions on the points table:

South Africa

Wins: 6 | Losses: 1 | NRR: +2.290

Still to play: India (November 5), Afghanistan (November 10)

*To secure guaranteed qualification, they must win at least one of their remaining two matches and accumulate 14+ points.

*If they lose both of their remaining matches, they must ensure a superior net run rate compared to at least one of the other four teams (India, New Zealand, Australia, Afghanistan) with a potential 12 points to stand a chance.

India

Wins: 6 | Losses: 0 | NRR: +1.405

Still to play: Sri Lanka (November 2), South Africa (November 5), Netherlands (November 12)

*To secure guaranteed qualification, they need to win at least one of their three remaining matches, accumulating a minimum of 14 points.

*If they fail to win any of the three remaining matches, they must ensure a superior net run rate compared to at least one of the other four teams (South Africa, New Zealand, Australia, Afghanistan) potentially reaching 12 points.

Australia

Wins: 4 | Losses: 2 | NRR: +0.970

Still to play: England (4 November), Afghanistan (7 November), Bangladesh (11 November)

*To secure guaranteed qualification, they must win all three of their remaining matches, amassing 14 points.

*If they win two out of three remaining matches, they need to ensure a superior net run rate compared to at least one of the other four teams (India, South Africa, New Zealand, Afghanistan) potentially reaching 12 points.

*If they win only one of the three remaining matches, they must maintain a better net run rate than the numerous other teams with a potential 10-point finish.

New Zealand

Wins: 4 | Losses: 3 | NRR: +0.484

Still to play: Pakistan (4 November), Sri Lanka (9 November)

*To guarantee qualification, they must win both of their remaining matches and secure a superior net run rate compared to at least one of the other four teams (India, South Africa, Australia, Afghanistan) potentially reaching 12 points.

*If they win just one of their remaining two matches, they need to maintain a better net run rate than the numerous other teams aiming for a 10-point finish.

Pakistan

Wins: 3 | Losses: 4 | NRR: -0.024

Still to play: New Zealand (4 November), England (11 November)

*To secure qualification, they must win both of their remaining matches and maintain a superior net run rate compared to the numerous other teams vying for a 10-point finish.

*If they win just one of their two remaining matches, they need Australia to lose all three of their remaining matches, New Zealand to lose both of their remaining matches and Afghanistan to lose at least two of their three remaining matches. They must also maintain a better net run rate than the various other teams aiming for an 8-point finish.

Afghanistan

Wins: 3 | Losses: 3 | NRR: -0.718

Still to play: Netherlands (3 November), Australia (7 November), South Africa (10 November)

*They need to win at least one, preferably all three, of their remaining matches to accumulate up to 12 points.

*Additionally, they should aim to significantly boost their net run rate to surpass New Zealand, Australia, or any other team ending with the same point total.

Sri Lanka

Wins: 2 | Losses: 4 | NRR: -0.275

Still to play: India (2 November), Bangladesh (6 November), New Zealand (9 November)

*They should secure victory in at least two, and ideally all three, of their remaining matches to accumulate up to 10 points.

*It's crucial to enhance their net run rate significantly to outpace New Zealand, Australia, or any other team with the same point total.

*They also need New Zealand and/or Australia to suffer losses in at least two of their three remaining matches.

Netherlands

Wins: 2 | Losses: 4 | NRR: -1.277

Still to play: Afghanistan (3 November), England (8 November), India (12 November)

*It's imperative to secure victory in at least two, and ideally, all three, of their remaining matches to reach a maximum of 10 points.

*They must significantly improve their net run rate to surpass New Zealand, Australia, or any other team finishing with the same point tally.

*Additionally, it's essential that New Zealand and/or Australia suffer losses in at least two of their three remaining matches.

Bangladesh

Wins: 1 | Losses: 6 | NRR: -1.446

Still to play: Sri Lanka (6 November), Australia (11 November)

* Can not qualify for the knockout stage

England

Wins: 1 | Losses: 5 | NRR: -1.652

Still to play: Australia (4 November), Netherlands (8 November), Pakistan (11 November)

*Win all three remaining matches to reach 8 points

*Improve net run rate to surpass New Zealand, Australia, and/or any other team finishing on 8 points

*New Zealand and/or Australia must lose all three of their remaining matches

*Only one of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and Netherlands can finish on 10 points or more