WTC 2025-27 cycle: How India can still qualify for WTC Final after series defeat to South Africa

The Indian cricket team are in deep double in the ongoing World Test Championship (WTC) 2025-27 cycle. India started their WTC campaign with two wins over England in July-August window that helped them get those valuable points. This series was followed by two games against West Indies that went in India's favor. With four wins in seven matches, India were in the third position of the WTC points table. 

But, things changed when South Africa landed to play a 2-match series against India. The Proteas have had a wonderful year and it turned even better when they defeated the home team in the Kolkata Test. Nobody had imagined the batting line-up to collapse or that the pitch conditions will favor the bowlers more. 

After the first loss, the second Test isn't looking in India's favor either. The batting problems persisted, and the bowlers failed to get the breakthoughs. The only good thing about the Indian line-up was their fielding. With India on the verge of losing the second Test as well, the repercussions will be extremely high. In this article, we'll discuss the WTC points system and India's roadmap to qualification. 

India's remaining matches in WTC 2025-27 cycle

In Sri Lanka: 2 Tests (August 2026)

In New Zealand: 2 Tests (October and November 2026)

v Australia at home: 5 Tests (January and February 2027)

India’s roadmap to qualification

The World Test Championship (WTC) points allocation is not a simple job. There are many things that are taken into consideration, including wins, loses, draws, home and away games, slow over rates, and much more. If we breakdown India's probability of qualifying for the WTC final, out of 18 games, they are yet to play nine. This means that the Men in Blue can still qualify for the finals but will have to be extra cautious now. They currently have 54.17 PCT after winning four out of eight matches.

The most important element for qualification is the PCT. If India manage to keep their PCT above 60, they might have a fair chance to qualify. To maintain this PCT, they'll have to win six/seven, tie one or two and lose lesser games, especially the home series. In the first edition of the WTC, New Zealand qualified with 70 while Australia missed out with 69.2 as per the old points system. 

Read also: 1st Test, Ashes 2025-26: Travis Head's blazing 69-ball ton hands Australia 8-wicket victory within two days

ICC has now refined the new points system and as per that in 2021-23, India had 58.8 and South Africa 55.56 where the Men in Blue qualified. But in 2023-25, the PCT didn't matter because Australia were way ahead of India with 67.54. Hence, taking into consideration the previous editions' PCTs, 60 is a good calculation and India will have to maintain it towards the end of the cycle.