Calculations: What do Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan need to qualify for the Super Four of the Asia Cup 2025?

The Asia Cup showdown between Sri Lanka and Afghanistan is pivotal for Super Four qualification. Sri Lanka leads Group B with 4 points from two wins, needing just a win to secure top spot.

SL vs AFG match will decide who will qualify from Group B. Image | Asian Cricket Council

The high-stakes clash between Sri Lanka and Afghanistan on Thursday night will decide which team secures a coveted spot in the Super Four from Group B. With only Hong Kong out of the running, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan are locked in a fierce battle for qualification. Sri Lanka currently hold the advantage, having won in their opening two games.

Current Standings and Points:

How can Sri Lanka qualify?

Sri Lanka have the straightforward path to the Super Four. A win against Afghanistan in their last group game guarantees them top spot in Group B with 6 points.

Even if they lose, they must avoid a heavy defeat; specifically, they should not lose to Afghanistan by a margin of 70 or more runs.

Also, if Afghanistan bats first and scores 150, Sri Lanka needs to chase more than 84 runs to qualify. If Sri Lanka bats first and sets 150, Afghanistan must chase it in under 11.4 overs to knock Sri Lanka out.

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How can Bangladesh qualify?

Bangladesh is in a precarious position, having finished their group matches with 4 points but a poor net run rate.

They need Sri Lanka to win their game against Afghanistan to clinch the second Super Four spot.

If Afghanistan wins, Bangladesh's fate depends on the margin of Afghanistan's victory. Bangladesh can only advance if Afghanistan's win over Sri Lanka is by a gargantuan margin; losing by a massive margin could help Bangladesh sneak through based on net run rate.

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How can Afghanistan qualify?

Afghanistan must win their final match against Sri Lanka to have any chance of reaching the Super Four.

Any victory, regardless of margin, puts Afghanistan through on superior net run rate.

However, if Afghanistan bats first and scores 150, Sri Lanka would need to score 84 or fewer for Bangladesh to qualify instead.

If Afghanistan bats second and chases a target set by Sri Lanka, they have to do so very quickly, within about 11.4 overs if Sri Lanka scored 150, to eliminate Sri Lanka from the tournament, which we have already discussed.

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