Theatres on the edge as states impose curbs, curfews

New Delhi: Respite for the Indian film exhibition sector since the covid-19 outbreak is proving to be fairly short-lived. The closure of cinemas in Delhi as well as the uncertainty around potential curbs in other states as covid cases surge could be the beginning of the upcoming film line-up getting deferred indefinitely, trade experts said. 

While Shahid Kapoor’s Jersey release has already been postponed, the future of big-ticket films like RRR, Prabhas-starrer Radhe Shyam, Ajith’s action film Valimai and Akshay Kumar’s Prithviraj hangs in the balance though there has been no news on them being deferred so far.

RRR and Radhe Shyam, are primarily Telugu films with dubbed Hindi versions as well as Tamil film Valimai will also see a Hindi release. RRR is scheduled for 7 January and will be followed by Radhe Shyam and Valimai for Pongal while Prithviraj is slated for January 21st .

Together these films had the potential to clock box office revenues of around Rs. 1,500 crore in January alone, experts said.

It would, however, be unviable to release Hindi films given that Delhi is often among the top two contributors of revenue for many titles. In 2021, the Hindi film industry is estimated to have made a little over Rs. 400 crore, one-tenth of 2019 figures.

As of Thursday, states like Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Kerala, had imposed night curfew in light of rising covid cases. Apart from Maharashtra, Rajasthan too has capped cinema occupancies at 50%.

“The Delhi closures have come as a big jolt at a time when the industry was just limping back to normalcy. It changes the entire audience sentiment and makes the situation very volatile,” film producer, trade and exhibition expert Girish Johar said. While producers of Hindi films are definitely on tenterhooks, those backing Radhe Shyam and RRR are in a slightly better place, given that cities like Delhi may not be their biggest revenue contributors, he said.

Trade website Box Office India said Delhi alone may not be a reason for these southern films to postpone releases and all current restrictions across states put together only mean a 20% loss. However, the bigger concern is where the Maharashtra market will stand over the next week, because shutdown there, coupled with Delhi, will mean a 40-45% hit to the Hindi version of these films. RRR, has not just spent an additional Rs. 20-25 crore on marketing and promotions, over and above its Rs. 300 crore production budget, distributors across India have also paid advances to screen the film in their respective territories.

Independent trade analyst Sreedhar Pillai said the RRR team is already aware it is at a disadvantage but added that the film, that is far too deep into promotions, “will get stale after a while" and there is no clarity on future. The period drama was looking to make Rs. 200-250 crore from north India, he said.

“So far, the momentum in north India was built on Spider-Man, Pushpa and ’83. But the Jersey delay has been a big blow, all our hopes are pinned on RRR and if they cancel, we will be back to April 2021 levels,” independent exhibitor Vishek Chauhan said. Chauhan said the release of Prithviraj is already doubtful since the producers are yet to release a trailer.

In an earlier interview, Kamal Gianchandani, president, Multiplex Association of India (MAI) had said the January to March quarter of 2022 has the potential to exceed the box office revenues of the same period in 2019, given that audiences were no longer hesitant about coming back to theatres and a lot of ready films were making for back-to-back theatrical releases.

On Thursday, an MAI delegation led by Ajay Bijli, chairman, PVR Ltd met Delhi deputy chief minister Manish Sisodia, requesting for an intervention in reopening of cinemas, citing negligible evidence of covid outbreak in theatres and the economic significance of the exhibition business that is on the verge of bankruptcy.